It amazes me how the validity of plumb-bobbing seems to always ends up with two camps - one that swears by it, and the other that says it doesn't do a thing. (Seems like there are too many pro's that do it for there not to be something to it). My understanding is that it will give you an idea of which DIRECTION a putt will break but not necessarily HOW MUCH it will break as it's a function of where you stand when performing the plumb bob relative to the hole. It can't necessarily account for all the contours between where you stand and the hole. (That might explain why it works some of the time for you Trig).
I recall a good article written in one of the golf pubs years ago which said it does work but that it was important that you took a very wide stance when plumbing to best account for the terrain.
Seems like there would be a straight-forward study that could be performed (ala Pelz) that would put the issue of plumb-bob validity to bed once and for all.